Author: Bulbul Roy Mishra
Publication: Organiser
Date: May 21, 2006
URL: http://www.organiser.org/dynamic/modules.php?name=Content&pa=showpage&pid=131&page=39
Driven by intense anti-monarchy hatred, the
House of Representatives from the Seven Party Alliance (SPA), headed by Premier
G.P. Koirala of Nepal Congress, unanimously passed a resolution on April 30,
calling for election to a Constituent Assembly. The NC should be cautious
about whether a plot is being hatched to finish off the achievements of the
1990 constitution. Why must we jump for a Constituent Assembly? asked he.
The single contributory factor that constrained
Shri Koirala to throw his cautions to the wind was the autocratic rule of
King Gyanendra after having scrapped the 1990 Constitution. The King, overtly
supported by China to destroy the Maoists, unwittingly fell into the Chinese
trap and exposed monarchy for the first time to the threat of extinction.
Covertly, China continued to lend logistic support to the Maoists, encouraging
them to do business in Tibet and buy Chinese arms from the sale proceeds to
fight the despotic King with people support.
The issue that Koirala Government is to eventually
address in the Constituent Assembly is whether Nepal should become a secular,
democratic republic like India, or a parliamentary democracy with constitutional
monarchy like Great Britain.
It is no secret that for the last ten years,
it was China alone that was backing the Maoists to counteract if not to eliminate
Indian influence on Nepal with the ulterior motive to establish its own hegemony
there.
Sandwiched between China and India, Nepal
royalty, up to the regime of King Birendra (2001), had always felt affinity
towards India for reason of common Hindu tradition. Politically also, democratic
parties of Nepal looked to democratic India, not communist China, for support
to their legitimate democratic aspirations. Considering strategic importance
of Nepal, it was important for China to wean away Nepal from India's influence.
Chinese analysts considered it nearly impossible as long as Hindu monarchy
in Nepal was continuing. Their strategy, therefore, was as follows.
First, start an anti-royal armed movement,
known popularly as the Maoist uprising, with an express intent to replace
monarchy with a republic under communist banner.
Second, to begin with, raise a slogan for
multi-party, secular, democratic republic so that Nepal Hindu tradition is
rendered politically irrelevant, conversion permitted, and its natural affinity
toward India snapped. The above strategy of the Maoists became evident when
Prachanda, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist),
in an interview to a Maoist journalist of Latin America in 2001 revealed that
the reason why the movement started in districts like Rolpa and Rukum in western
Nepal was that the influence of Hindu religion was weakest in those regions.
His remark that strong Hindu influence was an obstacle to the spread of the
revolutionary fervour was significant.
Third, in order to expedite abolition of the
monarchy, it was necessary to make it not merely unpopular but hateful. This
was not possible as long as King Birendra, known for his balanced composure
and respect for democratic institutions, was at the helm. The Chinese task
was made easy when on June 1, 2001, the then Crown Prince Dipendra reportedly
and rather inexplicably killed King Birendra and his entire family and then
killed himself to enable headstrong Gyanendra to ascend the throne. Almost
immediately thereafter, the new King walked into the Chinese trap by declaring
that his target was to suppress the violent Maoists.
Fourth, win over the royalty by inducements
and moral support to sustain autocracy. The inducement came in form of arms
supply ostensibly to suppress the Maoists, and moral support came in return
for arbitrary closure of 45-year-old establishment of Dalai Lama representative
in Nepal as also the Tibetan Refugee Welfare office in January, 2005, at China
bidding, on the flimsy ground that those offices were not registered under
Article 3 of the Society Act.
Fifth, when the situation turns too hot for
the King, quietly withdraw strategic support compelling the King to surrender
to the wishes of the people and abdicate.
Sixth, from two conflicting interviews of
Prachanda, one prior to royal assassination on June 1, 2001, given to a Latin
American journalist, and the other to Siddharth Varadarajan of the Hindu in
February, 2006, the change in the Maoist stance is indicative of the shift
in the Chinese strategy. In 2001, when King Birendra was still living and
unprovoking, Prachanda was breathing fire over inevitable armed revolution,
predicting that Ultimately we will have to fight with the Indian army. In
2006, the script changed, despite provocation from King Gyanendra and peoples
support behind them. He found India tough stand against autocracy positive
and urged India to shed its two pillar theory of constitutional monarchy together
with multi-party democracy. Prachanda remarked that China will not stake its
cordial relation with India by supporting the autocratic King looked as if
he was parroting the Chinese script.
Herein lays the Chinese trap which Indian
Marxists like Sitaram Yechury are not able to fathom. His unfounded claim
of having reformed Nepal Maoists into believers in parliamentary democracy
is absurd and stupid, absurd as only a simpleton would treat Maoists in India
and Nepal as ideologically different; and stupid because by unwittingly playing
second fiddle to China Indian Marxists may eventually succeed in alienating
India from Nepal.
Will Nepal turn into a secular democratic
republic, following India, debunking its Hindu tradition at the behest of
the Maoists? Or should it change into constitutional monarchy while continuing
with its Hindu identity? Surely, Nepal ground situation is not comparable
with India and, therefore, Nepal has no justification in emulating India.
Nepal future at this critical juncture rests on octogenarian Koirala. Only
time will tell whether Shri Koirala will play a Kautilya to extricate Nepal
from the Dragon net.
