Author: P Stobdan
Publication: The Times of India
Date: March 14, 2009
URL: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/TOP-ARTICLE-Fifty-Years-And-Counting/rssarticleshow/4256728.cms
Introduction: The China-Dalai Lama face-off
over Tibet continues
China recently appeared keen on averting a
replay of last year's Tibetan unrest that nearly wrecked the 2008 Beijing
Olympics. Ahead of the 50th anniversary of the Tibetan uprising on March 10
this year, it poured extra troops into Tibet to quell any disturbance. Since
mid-January, security preparations sanitised the region of pro-Dalai Lama
activists and kept out foreigners for fear of violent incidents attracting
global spotlight. Internet and mobile text-messaging services have been blocked
between March 10 and May 1 for "network improvement".Monasteries
have faced shutdowns and monks, subjected to 'patriotic education', have been
monitored.
On the eve of the anniversary, President Hu
Jintao promised to build a "Great Wall" against Tibetan separatism
while foreign minister Yang Jiechi warned other countries not to allow their
territories to be used by the Dalai Lama for anti-China activities. Yet reports
of monks defying orders have filtered out, especially from the Qinghai and
Sichuan provinces. But the anniversary went off peacefully in Lhasa amid China's
heightened measures.
Tibetans in exile staged symbolic protests
and called on the "Indian people to free Tibet". The Dalai Lama
made unusually strong comments about his anguish at failing to realise a half-century-old
struggle for Tibet's independence. He accused Beijing of turning Tibet into
"hell on Earth" through periods of martial law and hard-line policies.
But he also reiterated the demand for "meaningful autonomy" within
the framework of the Chinese constitution. Beijing too did not react to the
event with a show of force. Refuting his criticism as "lies", China
extolled its own achievements in freeing Tibetans from supposed slavery. It
declared March 28, marking the fall of the Dalai Lama regime in 1959, 'Serfs'
Liberation Day'.
Both sides perhaps saw reason for avoiding
mutually counterproductive confrontation. The Tibetan cause has received the
world's attention but China has successfully resisted scrutiny by maintaining
a seemingly nonnegotiable Tibet policy. If anything, explosive anger on the
part of Tibetans has merely risked triggering aggrieved nationalism in China.
Last year, Beijing was able to whip up public emotions at a time the Dalai
Lama - finding growing support among the Chinese intelligentsia - linked his
struggle with democracy's advent in China and his 'unshaken faith' in the
Chinese people.
But 2008's events damaged China equally. A
huge country with the world's largest population and en route to becoming
an economic superpower was made to look paranoid and helpless when protesters
the world over threatened to mar its Olympics showcase. China's achievements
appeared to lack credibility in
the international community's eyes. The Chinese
perhaps now recognise the soft power the Dalai Lama represents, which can
impact negatively on China's image.
Beijing in the past followed a dual approach
to the Dalai Lama, engaging him through talks but also accusing him of plotting
bloody riots. Intermittent dialogue lost steam after the Olympics, with China
rejecting a constitutional provision for the Dalai Lama's sway over Tibet
via what it called "disguised independence". While Tibetan interlocutors
faced condescension and admonishments about riots in Tibet, the talks helped
Beijing sidetrack international scrutiny.
The Dalai Lama came under intense pressure
from younger Tibetans to abandon his mild creed in favour of a more proactive
stance. When Beijing warned him to rein in his young followers, they told
him to break off talks. Squeezed from both sides, he threatened to retire
from political life. But in a special conclave in Dharamsala last November,
the majority reaffirmed their allegiance to his non-violent approach. His
retirement was ruled out but so were talks until Beijing showed seriousness.
There is no visible sign of change in Beijing's
waiting-game strategy: waiting for the Dalai Lama to pass away so it can install
a pliable replacement. The focus is shifting to the contested issue of succession.
For the Dalai Lama, the choice, though involving a mystical process, is becoming
clear. He had stoked a debate in 2007 over breaking his born-again rule and
opting for a democratically elected successor through a referendum before
his death. It is not clear if his recent statements are linked to a divine
call or political expediency aimed at thwarting China's control.
The 73-year-old leader's poor health last
year compelled his followers to seriously think about a leadership change.
It would be difficult to enforce an arrangement not involving the notion of
reincarnation. But several campaigns favour passing the mantle to the controversial
17th Karmapa who has Beijing's blessings apart from the Dalai Lama's recognition.
Succession is a complex issue under the Tibetan hierarchical system. It could
mean the collapse of the Gelukpa's supremacy which, in turn, would fuel dissensions
along sectarian lines, resulting in a final victory for China.
Tibet could figure prominently on the Obama
administration's radar. The US may call for a multilateral approach to ending
the imbroglio. For India, Tibet will always cause some anxiety. Last year,
New Delhi was both criticised for bending over backwards to please China as
well as patted for its realpolitik. With economic issues driving India's China
policy, Tibet is unlikely to assume much significance though it is linked
to critical security issues. It is not inconceivable that Beijing may at some
stage pressure New Delhi to dismantle Dharamsala. India needs a more sophisticated
policy that goes beyond simply curbing the Dalai Lama's activities.
- The writer is a senior security analyst
at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
