Author: Sandhya Jain
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: March 1, 2011
URL: http://www.dailypioneer.com/321090/A-love-affair-turns-sour.html
The US thought it could buy Pakistan's loyalty
by writing out billion-dollar cheques. As the spat over Raymond Davis shows,
the US thought wrong.
The month-long face-off between Islamabad
and Washington, DC over the arrest of undercover CIA agent Raymond Davis for
killing two ISI operatives on January 27 in Lahore could trigger the collapse
of American influence in the region. Even if ties are mended for now, the
White House will have to revisit its Afghanistan strategy and its animosity
towards Iran, which is emerging as a regional hegemon. The Saudi royalty that
could have mediated with Islamabad is itself under pressure.
The Arab uprising against US-friendly dictatorships
that facilitated the loot of oil wealth by Western multinationals has certainly
influenced Islamabad's refusal to grant Mr Davis full diplomatic immunity.
This has ruptured communications between the ISI and the CIA; the US has suspended
high-level dialogue with Pakistan, putting on hold President Asif Ali Zardari's
proposed visit to Washington in March.
Mr Davis, a private security contractor with
Blackwater, was posted at the American Embassy in Pakistan (with a work visa)
when he shot dead two Pakistanis in 'self-defence' after they tried to 'rob'
him. But the Lahore Police said Mr Davis confessed that after shooting the
men, he stepped out of his car to photograph one of them and then called the
US Consulate for help. Police said the victims were shot several times in
the back.
Public opinion was incensed when a youth on
a motorcycle was crushed by a Toyota Land Cruiser that raced down the wrong
side of a one-way street to rescue Mr Davis. A snag in his vehicle enabled
the police to arrest Mr Davis, but the Land Cruiser managed to enter the US
Consulate compound; both vehicle and driver were rushed out of the country
to the chagrin of the Government and people of Pakistan. Emotions heightened
when the wife of one victim died in hospital after consuming poison and telling
the media she wanted "blood for blood".
The Police recovered a private pistol, bullets,
a camera, cell phones, a sophisticated wireless set and some dollars from
Mr Davis. The camera reputedly had photographs of bunkers on an eastern border
fort at Waris Road (where a Pakistani Army Unit was once based), sensitive
buildings and locations. Scrutiny of the mobile phones showed Mr Davis was
in touch with various Taliban groups.
As the matter was highly sensitive, Pakistan's
Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, Mr Zardari and Army Chief Ashfaq Parvez
Kayani decided to let the judiciary handle the case on merit. Despite American
threats to halt the $7.5 billion five-year civilian aid to Pakistan, the trio
resisted pressure to release Mr Davis on grounds of diplomatic immunity. Washington
suffered a setback when the Lahore High Court gave the regime until March
14 to decide Mr Davis's immunity.
Islamabad is examining why Mr Davis was roaming
around Lahore with a loaded pistol, photographing sensitive sites; if the
two ISI agents were killed because Mr Davis feared he had been compromised
by their surveillance; and if he was helping Al Qaeda and was linked to the
abduction and killing of Col Imam.
Resenting the CIA's attempts to penetrate
the ISI and learn more about its nuclear programme, Pakistan was monitoring
the American spy agency's counter-terrorism activities. It said Mr Davis's
visa application contained bogus references and phone numbers, taking advantage
of a Government order to Pakistan Embassy staff in the US, Britain and the
UAE to issue visas without normal checks by the Interior Ministry and the
ISI. This opened the floodgates and the CIA sent in operatives not known to
Islamabad ('contract spies'), which strained ties. Pakistan is now re-examining
these visas.
According to Express Tribune of Lahore, Mr
Davis was close to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. The New York Times claimed
Davis "was part of a covert, CIA-led team of operatives conducting surveillance
on militant groups deep inside the country". Pakistani officials said
Mr Davis was recruiting youth from Punjab for the Taliban to fuel the insurgency.
He was allegedly working on a plan to legitimise American fears that Pakistan's
nuclear weapons are not safe and creating a Taliban group to do his bidding.
Mr Davis functioned under a secret deal made
by then President Pervez Musharraf in 2006, which allowed covert CIA operations
through private security firms like Blackwater/Xe Worldwide and DynCorp to
spy on the Taliban and Al Qaeda. But Pakistani intelligence found he had developed
close links with the TTP.
Other sources said Mr Davis's CIA team was
tracking the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba, a group Pakistan uses in its proxy war with
India and which the US regards as a threat to allied troops in Afghanistan.
Pakistan is upset as the LeT has longstanding ties with the ISI. The CIA has
also been investigating madarsas in the region.
The Express Tribune hinted that Islamabad's
tough stance on Mr Davis reflected anger at Washington implicating the ISI
in the November 2008 Mumbai attacks and the decision by a New York City court
to summon the ISI chief, Lt Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha, in connection with the
attacks. In retaliation, Islamabad exposed the identity of the CIA's top clandestine
officer in Pakistan.
Pakistan is under immense pressure from its
civilian population to make America pay for the drone attacks in tribal areas.
Releasing Mr Davis could bring the anti-Government protests sweeping Arab
countries to the streets of Islamabad. Should such an uprising happen, retired
officers warn that the military will refuse to take sides and allow the Zardari
Government to fall. This could trigger the rise of militant Islam to power
in Pakistan, they warn. As the US needs Pakistan to maintain supply lines
to its 140,000 troops in Afghanistan, it cannot push too hard.
But it is a volatile peace. Some militant
and religious groups are demanding Mr Davis be tried in Pakistani courts and
hanged for his crime. Perhaps Washington will buy peace with the victims'
families through a handsome compensation (blood money is permissible under
Islamic and Pakistani law).
Regardless how things are finally resolved,
US-Pakistan ties can never be the same again. Nor will Afghanistan settle
by White House diktat. Afghanistan and Pakistan have become more unstable,
and the neighbourhood more uncongenial for Uncle Sam.
New Delhi, which made the grim mistake of
annoying Iran (with consequences for our oil security) and welcoming continued
American presence in Afghanistan (knowing it is the graveyard of empires),
should urgently rework the mindless policy of following Washington without
regard to the national interest. India is not a client state. The auto-colonialism
of its ruling elite cannot be allowed to compromise the Republic.
