Author: Ajey Lele
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: May 7, 2011
URL: http://www.dailypioneer.com/336908/Osama's-protection-and-'discovery'---all-scripted-by-ISI.html
The Pakistanis protected Osama bin Laden for
as long as it suited them and last week gave him up because a new design has
been sculpted
Osama bin Laden is dead and everybody with
any idea of terrorism is blaming Pakistan for keeping him alive for the past
10 years. But, will history judge Pakistan likewise?
It appears that the entire world is angry
with Pakistan. Civilised humanity is angry, frustrated, and, above all helpless
at the chicanery of the rulers of this rogue State bordering India to the
west. But, are the Americans and Indians so naive as to think that Pakistan
should have disclosed his whereabouts and allowed him to be killed or arrested
soon after 9/11?
This may sound against the current of present
thinking, but It is important to appreciate the fact that actually it goes
to the credit of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) that the might
of the United States was resisted through deception for not one or two years,
but an entire decade. There is also a possibility that Osama was actually
turned over the Americans when the ISI realised that he was no longer relevant
to Pakistan's designs.
It has been argued that it is ISI's failure
that Osama stayed in Pakistan for so long without getting noticed. But, in
reality it could be viewed as the ISI's success. It was a clever ploy to hide
him at a place like Abbottabad, a quiet suburb of Islamabad, often referred
to as the city of schools in a building next to a military training academy.
Who could ever suspect that Osama would stay in a town dominated by the military?
This place is around 60 km from Islamabad and 150 km from Peshawar. So, all
kinds of political and logistical support were easily available. There is
an airport in the vicinity in case there was need to fly him off in an emergency.
Being a services town all kinds of modern medical facilities are available
and military medical services could be put in use to hide the identity of
the patient.
The interesting aspect is that Osama's protectors,
whoever they were, allowed the notion to spread that he was hiding in a cave.
This could be viewed as a success of the ISI's misinformation campaign. For
students of media, this is a supreme case of "media management".
About Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) chief Prabhakaran it was said
that he wore "cyanide necklaces" at all times, which turned out
an exaggeration. Similarly, TV clips were leaked to the global media showing
Osama always against a mountainous background. Those, in conjunction with
the televised images of his 1999 interview, erected a permanent visual of
him as a mountain man. This was admirable on the part of the ISI as this fiction
allowed the world's most notorious intelligence organisation to shield the
world's most wanted terrorist for almost a full decade without any problems.
While most people always believed that Osama
could be hiding in Pakistan's inaccessible mountain passes, they were successfully
persuaded by post-9/11 Islamabad regimes that they were not to blame for that.
A whole lot of associated fiction was created - for instance, it was spread
that the tribes who lived in those areas did not care for Islamabad's writ
and that the Pakistani Army was forever inadequately equipped to take on the
fierce, committed Taliban soldiers who guarded him- so please would America
send more dollars?
Post 9/11, Pakistan was not offered too many
options but to tow the US line. Now, it appears that they made best out of
their compulsions. In one of his earliest albeit private outbursts, George
W. Bush had threatened to reduce Pakistan to "fetal position". A
country which could have been attacked by the US actually ended up extracting
maximum political and financial help from the US. So the operation to keep
Osama in hiding was part of a larger strategy to squeeze the maximum possible
out of America.
Within days of the Osama hit, Pakistan launched
Plan B. They understand that now the US is likely to put them under tremendous
pressure. So, they have started playing their cards carefully. Officially,
they have admitted that "not knowing" the whereabouts of Osama for
so many years was the failure of their intelligence setup. Pervez Musharraf,
the military dictator who is the object of the needle of suspicion, has started
giving TV interviews denying a Pakistani hand in the concealment. In the process
he is batting for the ISI and General Ashfaq Kayani. Most importantly the
country is not speaking in the same voice. This is useful for creating confusion.
By harping on the line that more than 30,000 Pakistanis have died due to acts
of terrorism in the past decade, the intellectuals deployed by the Pakistani
establishment are generating a lot of patriotic bluster - this is coming useful
because within days the hardline elements organised the first a series of
prayer meetings for the fallen terrorist leader.
Pakistan understands that with Osama dead,
its importance in America's scheme of things would diminish by many degrees.
But, to make themselves relevant for the US they still have two cards: Afghanistan
and the nuclear issue. It would be interesting to watch how they could play
these cards in coming days.
Predictably, old friend China has started
making the familiar noises about the need for the world powers to keep Pakistan
in humour. Two weeks before the killing of Osama, Pakistan's Prime Minister
Yousuf Raza Gilani had told the Afghan President Hamid Karzai that the Americans
had failed them both. In his view, the US is facing significant economic problems
and hence is unlikely to support any process of long-term regional development.
Under these circumstances it's better to engage China. Such statements could
have also been made to pressurise the US. Today, Pakistan needs more US support
than ever.
Meanwhile, there are important lessons here
for India. Assuming that the powers in Pakistan had some idea about the Osama's
hideout location there is a lot to ponder over. Is India's post 26/11 policy
of 'dossier diplomacy' relevant? Will Pakistan ever response to India's demands
truthfully? If Pakistan can fool the US, is India's policy of confidence building
measures (CBMs) appropriate? Can Pakistan be trusted?
India's own intelligence agencies should pick
up a few tips from their Pakistani opposite numbers. Our babu-laden R&AW
and IB would really benefit if a little part of the professionalism of the
ISI infects them. It is important to appreciate that the US succeeded in locating
Osama because of the correct mix of human and technical intelligence. In Indian
context much more needs to be done in both these fields.
It looks unlikely that Pakistan would abandon
its policy of using terrorism as a tool against India. Under these circumstances
are the methods followed by India are correct or there is a need for the midcourse
correction?
- The writer is Research Fellow, IDSA
