Author: Philip Bowring
Publication: The Indian Express
Date: June 10, 2011
URL: http://www.indianexpress.com/news/a-difficult-balancing/801708/0
Appropriately, the meeting straddled the anniversary
of the Tiananmen massacre. Defence ministers and top brass from the US, China
and a host of regional powers were in Singapore for the Shangri-La Dialogue.
Just as that June 4 ended many illusions about the nature of China's Party,
so the past year stripped away illusions about the country's "peaceful
rise."
No longer does the region assume that peace
is a given and Chinese economic growth will not create other problems. Instead,
the focus is on managing conflicts and allaying mutual suspicions through
dialogue.
China is trying hard to make up for its diplomatic
setbacks in 2010, when, in quick succession, it picked territorial fights
with Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan and India, and angered South Korea by
not condemning Pyongyang's aggressions. Partly as a consequence, the US was
spurred into declaring that peace and freedom of navigation in the South China
Sea were among its vital interests. The US focus is on the importance of open
access to the commerce that is the lifeblood of most of East Asia.
Now China is making every effort to put on
a smiling face, while the US is keen to show it wants dialogue with China's
military, recently hosting the PLA's chief of staff. President Jintao has
visited the United States, Prime Minister Jiabao has been conveying good will
around the globe, and China has been emphasising how far behind the US it
lags in armaments. But it is too late for China to restore the status quo
ante.
The US economy may be in deep difficulty,
likewise Japan and militarily weak Southeast Asia. Australia is increasingly
dependent on exporting to China, and India is keenly aware of how far it lags
China in military technology. But it's just these weaknesses, combined with
Beijing's boasting of its capability to project power, that have made other
countries aware more than ever of their common interests. Indonesia has begun
to attach more importance to Asean, which in turn is focusing more on issues
other than economic cooperation. US defence cuts are unlikely to affect its
military capabilities in the Pacific. A feisty Hanoi, with old connections
to Russia and India and warming ties with the United States, has galvanised
others in the region to see the South China Sea as a crucial test of China's
intent.
For China, balancing diplomatic necessities
with nationalistic impulses is proving difficult. One example is its first
aircraft carrier. Bought as a shell from Ukraine in 1998, the vessel is about
to become operational. Reportedly named the Shi Lang after the Manchu Dynasty
general who in 1683 conquered Taiwan, it will be a source of pride and a constant
reminder to China's neighbors that they would do well to bolster their regional
alliances.
Nor does China get much help from its few
real friends. Pakistan's prime minister, Yousaf Raza Gilani, may have embarrassed
the United States by praising China to the skies during a recent visit. But
he also embarrassed Beijing by asserting that China has offered to build a
naval base for Pakistan at Gwadar to which China would have access. While
this was probably an exaggeration, it touched Indian nerves.
The major focus of arms build-ups, however,
remains Northeast Asia. Japan and South Korea may have no answer to Beijing's
growing strategic arsenal, but the sophistication of their surface and submarine
fleets is more than equal to China's, and Japan also has close military cooperation
with Australia. Russia is reviving its long-decayed Pacific fleet.
In any case, China's emergence has upset the
status quo. Beijing's actions, be they conciliatory or aggressive, will set
the tone for the future, and hence the relationships between the US and the
other nations of the region.
