Author: T V R Shenoy
Publication: Rediff.com
Date: June 1, 2011
URL: http://www.rediff.com/news/column/the-communal-polarisation-of-keralas-voters/20110601.htm
There was a clear polarisation of Christian
and (especially) Muslim votes in favour of the UDF. This caused enough misgivings
to start a consolidation of Hindu votes behind the LDF
"I have come to an insane asylum!"
Swami Vivekananda reportedly exclaimed after touring Kerala.
My own memories, obviously, do not stretch
as far back as 1892 but I can easily recall the time before the reorganisation
of states gave Kerala not just its current contours but also its current name,
remember back when it was Travancore-Cochin at the dawn of independent India,
and even farther back when it was two princely states and a Malabar integrated
into the giant British province of Madras.
Delving into 70 years of memories I cannot
recollect another time when Kerala was so split on communal lines. Look no
farther than the newly-elected Kerala assembly if you want to see proof of
that.
If I had to sum it up I might use the abbreviation
'PCM'. In the season of the IIT-JEE results some might mistake that for 'Physics,
Chemistry, Maths', and that is true in a sense.
But it could also easily be shorthand for
'Polarisation of Christians and Muslims' -- inevitably leading to a counter-aggregation
of Hindus.
Kerala is still, technically, a state where
the majority of the population is Hindu. The data for the 2011 Census are
not out but according to the 2001 numbers, 56.2 percent of Keralites were
Hindus, 24.3 percent were Muslims, and 19 percent were Christians. Those values
have almost certainly changed over the past decade; the 2001 Census also revealed
that the Hindu and the Christian figures had fallen since 1991, the Christian
population dropping by 0.32 percent and the Hindu population by 1.48 percent.
Assuming, however, that Hindus still constitute
about 50 percent you would think the majority community make up roughly half
of the assembly. As they, nominally, represent the majority that assumption
should be particularly true of the treasury benches.
Wrong. 49 of the 72 MLAs in the ruling United
Democratic Front are non-Hindus -- a tad over 68 percent. Contrariwise, only
19 of the 68 MLAs in the Left Democratic Front are non-Hindus -- just under
28 percent.
There was a clear polarisation of Christian
and (especially) Muslim votes in favour of the UDF. This caused enough misgivings
to start a consolidation of Hindu votes behind the LDF. (And yes, I recognise
the irony of Hindus surging behind nominally atheist Marxists but that is
the reality of Kerala!)
At this point, I know there are some readers
who will whine about journalists writing about 'communal' topics. Spare me
the rubbish!
We live in a day where the Manmohan Singh
cabinet has approved a caste-based census. This is also a time when, in the
wake of the Sachar Committee Report, reservation for Muslims is being openly
discussed.
I hope you realise what this means. It was
the Congress, at the urging of Mahatma Gandhi, that ensured there would be
no separate enumeration of castes in the census after 1931. And the founding
fathers of the Republic of India -- memories of where Muslim reservation had
led India fresh in their minds -- did not opt for religion-based reservation.
If the Sonia Gandhi-Manmohan Singh duopoly
wish to overturn over 60 years of Congress policy let us admit that there
will be consequences. Both caste and religion will play increasingly larger
roles in public life. Berate it if you like but start getting used to the
fact.
The second reason for writing about the make-up
of the Kerala assembly is that every section of society in the state is already
talking about it -- from mailmen to ministers -- but privately. Nobody wants
to come out and admit the obvious, that in a democracy it is deeply flawed
to have a government where the majority community is severely under-represented.
It makes for some bad physics, worse chemistry,
and some absolutely horrible maths.
The current set-up is bad from the point of
view of physics because it is inherently unstable. Ideally, a ministry would
be like a pyramid -- resting on a broad base of support. What we have right
now is a ministry that is like a spinning top -- narrow at the base and broader
above. A top is nice to look at while it works but we all know how it ends
-- thrashing about, then toppling over.
Ministries have been given to one-MLA and
two-MLA parties because there is no other option. The numbers are so finely
balanced that a couple of disgruntled MLAs could topple the Oommen Chandy
ministry.
I have already mentioned how skewed the Hindu
to non-Hindu ratio is on the treasury benches. But, in the spirit of the caste-based
enumeration approved by the Congress high command, it gets even worse when
you look at the caste break-up. The Ezhavas, for instance, are numerically
the largest Hindu community, and yet they have but three MLAs to represent
them on the UDF benches. And soon the Nairs shall start counting how many
they have, and then each of the rest.
It makes for rotten chemistry because, as
noted above, the Congress is only too aware of the lack of support from Hindus.
This has already led to a face-off between the Congress and its principal
partners in the UDF before the Chandy ministry was two weeks old.
The Congress has ten representatives in a
20-strong ministry. Since the Congress has only 38 MLAs that is a ratio slightly
better than 1:4. The Muslim League (whose name reveals its leanings) and the
Kerala Congress (whose name conceals its Christian base) think they should
enjoy the same ratio of MLAs to ministers. In other words, the Muslim League
thinks itself entitled to five ministerships while the Kerala Congress wants
three, one more each than has been allotted.
Panakkad Sayyid Hyder Ali Shihab Thangal,
president of the Muslim League, set the cat among the pigeons before the Chandy
ministry was a week old. He unilaterally announced the name of Manjalamkuzhi
Ali as the candidate for the proposed fifth berth. This may have been either
a bid for 'parity' with the Congress, or an attempt to keep the MLA in good
temper since he had quit the LDF.
The Kerala Congress is not to be left behind.
It has delicately suggested that a ministerial berth for, say, P C George
would be welcomed.
It leads to bad chemistry within parties when
'X' gets a ministry and 'Y' does not, particularly so when a 'Y' was once
part of another bloc. But trying to settle the chemistry within the Muslim
League and the Kerala Congress would lead to a mathematical nightmare for
the Congress.
The first difficulty lies with the Ninety-First
Amendment. The relevant part reads: "The total number of ministers, including
the chief minister, in the council of ministers in a state shall not exceed
fifteen percent of the total number of members of the legislative assembly
of that state."
Kerala elects 140 MLAs, meaning there cannot
be more than 21 ministers. The current cabinet is already 20-strong, so there
is no way that both the Muslim League and the Kerala Congress can be satisfied.
Second, consider what happens if the Congress
sacrifices one of its own seats to keep the two powerful allies happy. The
Muslim League will put up a Muslim and the Kerala Congress shall field a Christian.
That will further dilute the Hindu element in the cabinet.
As we all know, the Congress is promoting
not just a caste-based census and greater opportunities for Muslims but also
gender-based representation. I note without comment that there is exactly
one woman MLA in the UDF benches, P K Jayalakshmi.
It used to be said that what Bengal thinks
today India shall think tomorrow. When it comes to politics it would be more
accurate to say that what Kerala suffers today India must endure tomorrow.
Kerala was experimenting with coalition governments long before they took
shape in New Delhi -- and Kerala is seeing the effects of communal polarisation
on government well before the caste-based and religion-based policies of the
UPA regime are felt in India as a whole tomorrow.
Yes, it is disgusting to see so decent and
secular (in the noble sense of the word) a man as Chandy immersed in calculating
by caste and creed. Get used to it; the policy is set in Delhi, not Thiruvananthapuram.
How might Swami Vivekananda react if he were
to return to Kerala today? Perhaps he might say, "The inmates have taken
over the asylum!"
