Author: PTI
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: September 10, 2011
URL: http://www.dailypioneer.com/pioneer-news/top-story/5349-now-focus-on-pakistan.html
As we observe the 10th anniversary of the
September 11 attacks, we need to understand that terrorism still needs to
be fought vigorously. And, that the epicentre of jihadi fire has shifted eastwards
to Pakistan, writes Utpal Kumar
As the world prepared to mark the 10th anniversary
of the attacks on the twin towers and the Pentagon, India suffered a major
terrorist attack in Delhi. It was a painful reminder that a decade after 9/11,
New Delhi continued to be afflicted by jihadi terrorism of all hues. Incidentally,
India was the victim of Islamic extremism long before Mohammed Atta, along
with 18 other Al Qaeda men, hijacked four planes to turn them into missiles
against American buildings and installations. For most Indians, therefore,
9/11 was just the culmination of what they had been witnessing for decades.
For the rest of the world, however, it was a watershed event, shaping not
just the lives of many personalities but also the history of several countries.
So, what if 9/11 had never happened? Then,
America wouldn't have been the America we see today. John Kerry would have
become President. And, by that logic, the Obama phenomenon wouldn't have germinated,
denying the Americans an opportunity to have the first black President with
'Hussein' as the middle name. Afghanistan would still be run by the Taliban,
with Al Qaeda calling the shots from Kandahar. Saddam Hussein would have remained
the most dominant - and divisive - figure in West Asia, galvanising the anti-American
forces. Daniel Pearl would have been alive. And, Hollywood would be poorer
by a few war movies, including the Oscar-winning Hurt Locker. As for academics,
Francis Fukuyama would have prevailed over Samuel Huntington, unveiling the
'end of history' - but just for the time being. After all, petro-dollars would
still be funding global jihad. And, there would be enough Islamists plotting
a terrorist attack on US soil. History, at best, would have been delayed,
not denied.
At first glance, 9/11 appeared to be a dazzling
success for Al Qaeda, but on closer scrutiny the attacks did not achieve what
Osama bin Laden aspired for - the withdrawal of American troops from West
Asia. Instead, the US invaded and occupied Afghanistan and Iraq. By bombarding
the American mainland, Al Qaeda - which means "the base" in Arabic
- lost its very base in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.
It is, however, on the streets of Arabia that
Al Qaeda suffered the biggest blow: Its credibility - and even relevance -
hit a nadir during the Arab Spring as it played an inconsequential role in
the series of protests that erupted across West Asia and North Africa. The
change of regimes in the region was bin Laden's cherished goal, but the Arab
'revolutions' were not the kind he had wished for: Protesters this time didn't
carry placards with pictures of bin Laden. For them, he was dead much before
the US Navy SEALs actually killed him in May this year.
Ten years on, the US has sidelined Al Qaeda,
and seems less vulnerable than it was a decade ago. But at what price?
Price of safety
The war on terror has come at a cost for Americans.
But for 9/11, the US would not have invaded Afghanistan or Iraq, where about
6,000 of its soldiers have lost their lives. The Economist, basing itself
on the Brown project, says that on a "very conservative" estimate
about 137,000 civilians have been killed in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan.
It believes that the US has spent a whopping $4 trillion on war efforts since
9/11.
And why not! September 11 came as a rude shock
to Americans. They never thought that the jihadi fire could ever cross the
Atlantic. As a result, they overreacted. According to a Washington Post report,
since 9/11, the US Government has created or reconfigured at least 263 organisations
to tackle terror-related issues. The intelligence-gathering machinery saw
its budget being hiked by 250 per cent, to $75 billion - this is more than
the rest of the world spends put together. The attacks also saw the emergence
of the Department of Homeland Security - the third-largest bureaucracy after
the Pentagon and the Department of Veterans Affairs - with a workforce of
230,000 people. This department produces 50,000 reports a year - 136 a day!
And, more than 30,000 people are employed to track phone calls and other communications
in the US - yet no one could hear Maj Nidal Malik Hasan making intimidating
calls at the Walter Reed Army Medical Center!
Diminishing returns
The US, despite all this, has precious little
to show apart from the disruption of Al Qaeda. Iraq may look in a better shape
today, but the jihadi outfit still has the ability to launch 42 terror strikes
across the country in a day. And, when the American troops depart towards
the year-end, they will leave behind a country that would appear closer to
Iran than the US.
As for Afghanistan, America began its Kabul
operation with a bang, overthrowing the Taliban regime within a few months
after the 9/11 attacks. But, then Bush lost interest in Afghanistan and went
after Saddam Hussein. This gave the Taliban enough time to recover. Meanwhile,
the American attempt to push the Taliban out of Afghanistan made the jihadis
shift their bases to Pakistan. With the epicentre of terror shifting eastwards,
the headache for the US - and India - has increased. After all, a nuclear-armed
country of 190 million Muslims cannot be left at the mercy of Islamists. The
situation has been further complicated by Islamabad's fixation of running
with the jihadi hare and hunting with the American hounds.
Pakistani duplicity was roundly exposed early
this year when bin Laden was found living comfortably in a residence next
to the Pakistan Military Academy. It's here that Delhi's security concerns
lie - a country which is inimical to Indian interests and which even detests
the very idea of India is today the hub of terror. For it, the war on terror
has to be fought on Pakistani soil. In fact, the success of the war on terror
depends on how we deal with Islamabad.
Terror threats exist
As for the US, bin Laden may be dead, but
the threat exists, as the real brain behind 9/11 remains elusive. In his book,
The Looming Tower, Lawrence Wright says that without Ayman al-Zawahiri's strategic
decision to shift from attacking 'apostate' West Asian regimes to targeting
the West, 9/11 would not have happened.
If Wright is to be believed, bin Laden, far
from being an ideal mujahid fighting against the 'Godless' Soviet Union in
Afghanistan, was a "pathetic stick-in-the-mud" who would fall ill
before every battle. So much so that the tough, war-ravaged Afghans, tired
of bin Laden's timidity and laziness, declared him and his Arab associates
"useless". Wright's bin Laden seems similar to the one the US Navy
SEALs encountered in Abbottabad - lean, frail and non-combative. Had al-Zawahiri
not been there, bin Laden would have left Al Qaeda to become a farmer! Also,
Bill Clinton had his role. In 1998, the Clinton Administration ordered the
bombing of an Al Qaeda camp in Afghanistan in a failed effort to kill bin
Laden - in retaliation to the embassy attacks in Africa. This single incident
placed bin Laden at the forefront of the jihadi movement from where it was
impossible to beat a retreat.
The Way out
Today, with the American economy foundering,
the US is looking for ways to move out of the terror web. The political discourse
in that country has turned inwards: People want the Government to correct
the malaise at home than abroad. They want to focus less on war and more on
employment. After all, for them, the 2008 economic slowdown has had a more
direct impact than terrorism.
The US, however, should desist from dropping
its guard on terrorism. The whole world will be at loss if America concludes
that it would focus solely on economics. Al Qaeda is still dangerous; so are
its affiliates and splinter groups. In fact, the scenario has only got exacerbated
with jihadis finding safe bases in nuclear-armed Pakistan. The Obama Administration
should understand that the next 9/11 is being planned in Pakistan. Can it
ignore the threat one more time?
