Author: Claude Arpi
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: September 15, 2011
URL: http://www.dailypioneer.com/pioneer-news/edit/6685-peace-says-the-dragon.html
In a recent White Paper, Beijing explains
its policy of development through peace even as China flaunts its military
might to seize control of South China Sea!
Great news! China has confirmed that it will
remain a peaceful nation! The Information Office of the State Council (Chinese
Cabinet) recently published a White Paper on China's peaceful development,
detailing the measures that Beijing is taking to grow peacefully.
Affirming that China "with an ancient
civilisation and a population of over 1.3 billion, is making big strides in
its advance towards modernisation", Beijing raises crucial questions:
"What path of development has China chosen? What will China's development
bring to the rest of the world?" In some 9,000 words, the answer is 'peace'.
The White Paper elucidates: "(It) is
a strategic choice made by China to realise modernisation, make itself strong
and prosperous, and make more contribution to the progress of human civilisation.
China will unswervingly follow the path of peaceful development." That
is good and worth noting.
As we could have guessed, the White Paper
asserts that it is the 1949 Communist takeover which changed the fate of China:
"This marked the realisation of China's independence and liberation of
its people and ushered in a new epoch in China's history." The rosy picture
of a peaceful China is described in detail, as well as Beijing's "hard
(work) to explore a path of socialist modernisation that conforms to China's
conditions and the trend of the times."
But what is this 'peaceful rise'? Is it a
new type of 'make love, not war' campaign, once promoted by San Francisco's
hippies in the 1960s? Reading the White Paper one could almost imagine Mr
Hu Jintao or Mr Wen Jiabao, with flowers in their hair, singing Joan Baez's
songs (although she was a true revolutionary of her times).
Beijing gives its own reading of a peaceful
rise: "China should develop itself through upholding world peace and
contribute to world peace through its own development. It should achieve development
with its own efforts and by carrying out reform and innovation; at the same
time, it should open itself to the outside and learn from other countries…
It should work together with other countries to build a harmonious world of
durable peace and common prosperity."
These are nice words, but if one goes deeper
into concrete facts, the reality is sometimes quite different. Take the South
China Sea conflict: While the Chinese Government is speaking of peace, many
in China are planning for war. The Qiushi Journal, a 'theoretical' publication
of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, recently published
a commentary affirming that "the precondition to any discussion is that
China has sovereignty over the area. After that is agreed upon, there can
be discussions among the countries involved on putting aside conflicts and
collectively exploring resources". In other words: "First you agree
with us, we will discuss later".
While some scholars believe that China should
exercise self control, others think that Beijing should stand firm. A commentator
wrote in the same journal: "China should hold a firm position and maintain
its options, including war, to guard China's rights … For China to exercise
self-control does not help to solve the problem."
The International Herald Leader, a Xinhua
publication on international relations, published another commentary: "Chinese
observers believe that China should consistently adhere to the principle of
refusing third party (read the US) interference in the affairs of the South
China Sea… Regarding waters under its jurisdiction, China must enforce
its authority without mercy."
One could ask, why publish a White Paper at
this point in time? It is undoubtedly related to a Pentagon publication entitled
'Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China',
an annual report for the Congress, which details the preparedness of the Chinese
defence forces and the challenges for the US. The report says: "China's
modernised military could be put to use in ways that increase China's ability
to gain diplomatic advantage or resolve disputes in its favour." A 'peaceful
rise' using military power!
Today, the main focus of the PLA remains Taiwan:
"The PLA seeks the capability to deter Taiwan independence and influence
Taiwan to settle the dispute on Beijing's terms." Speaking about the
'robust' investment in modern hardware and technology, the report believes
that "the decade from 2011 through 2020 will prove critical to the PLA".
At the same time, China has only made "modest,
but incremental, improvements in the transparency of its military and security
affairs". But the Department of Defence believes that "uncertainty
remains about how China will use its growing capabilities." The report
also speaks of the concept of Three Warfares: Psychological warfare, media
warfare and legal warfare and mentions "China's desire to effectively
exploit these force enablers in the run-up to and during hostilities."
Nowhere in the White Paper is there a mention of this.
Interestingly while psychological warfare
seeks to "undermine an enemy's ability to conduct combat operations",
media warfare aims "at influencing domestic and international public
opinion to build support for China's military actions and dissuade an adversary
from pursuing actions contrary to China's interests". The publication
of the White Paper seems part of the media warfare.
An article in The China Daily explains: "In
recent years, contrary to the country's desire, the rise of China on the world
stage has aroused misunderstanding and suspicion… Such sentiments are
not based on facts…Chinese leaders have on many occasions reiterated
the country's strategy of development."
Part of the Pentagon report is consecrated
to the development of new Chinese missiles. The Central Military Commission's
priorities are land-based ballistic and cruise missiles: "developing
and testing several new classes and variants of offensive missiles, forming
additional missile units, upgrading older missile systems, and developing
methods to counter ballistic missile defences."
The fact that several of these missiles are
targeting India does not help to reinforce New Delhi's trust towards Beijing.
Then there is the first aircraft carrier (a renovated version of the Soviet
Varyag) which will begin its trial at the end of the year. And the J-20, China's
fifth generation fighter plane. The fighter aircraft incorporating stealth
characteristics was tested in January 2011, the very day Mr Robert Gates,
the US Defence Secretary, landed in China. Was it a message of peace?
One could add a myriad of other examples to
the list; one of them is cyber warfare. In an article in The China Youth Daily,
"Fight A Cyber War, How?" a young Chinese explains: "Cyber
warfare is different from the traditional warfare of the past, which featured
gunfire and flying shells; cyber warfare is a completely silent and brand
new type of warfare. It is not only active in war and all kinds of conflicts,
but also flits in and out of political, economic, military, cultural, technological,
and other everyday activities."
It might be true that Beijing has lately made
some efforts to bring more transparency in its international dealings and
has opened up, particularly by engaging in bilateral military exchanges and
participating in several UN "peace missions", but more than a WP
will be necessary to establish a sustainable and trustworthy relationship,
with India in particular. The Chinese penetration in Nepal, Burma or Pakistan
should remind Delhi that 'peaceful development' does not mean one should not
be ready for any eventuality. That is what China does.
