Author: Sandhya Jain
Publication: Niticentral.com
Date: October 17, 2013
URL: http://www.niticentral.com/2013/10/17/namo-wave-gives-sleepless-nights-to-congress-146882.html

As the beleaguered Chief Minister Oommen Chandy seems unable to extricate himself from the solar and other scandals dogging his regime, Union Defence Minister AK Antony is reportedly positioning himself to return to the State amidst growing indications that the Congress may not be able to lead another coalition at the Centre.

The BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi’s highly successful visits to Kerala this year – first to the Sri Narayana Guru ashram at Sivagiri in April and then to the 60th birthday celebrations of Mata Amritanandamayi at Kollam in September – have forced a serious rethink in the Congress about the wisdom of retaining Oommen Chandy.  Anthony may well move before the 2014 General Election in order to maintain the Congress tally of Lok Sabha seats from the southern State, currently 13 out of 20. This is important to the high command because in 2004, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) was so thoroughly trounced that it could secure only a single Lok Sabha seat.

Anthony has in the past few years cultivated the Muslim-dominated Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI), which arose from the Popular Front of India’s (PFI) national political conference in Calicut in 2009. It is pertinent that in 2012, the State Government had informed the Kerala High Court that the PFI’s activities are inimical to national security and that the Front is “nothing but a resurrection of the banned outfit Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) in another form”.

During the Kerala Assembly elections in 2011, Antony personally intervened to ensure that the BJP was denied near-certain victory in the two seats of Nemom and Manjeswar, which Congress had given to its allies. The BJP had fielded former Union Minister O Rajagopal from Nemom and the then Yuva Morcha State president K Surendran from Manjeswar (a Muslim-dominated area close to the Karnataka border).

According to local observers, Antony spent two days at Manjeswar (Kasargod) and nearly a full day at Nemom (Thiruvanthapuram). In both constituencies, he called all rebel leaders to meet him, even sending vehicles to bring those reluctant to meet him. It is said that he rebuked them sharply, and told them that his strength in the Congress and the Union Ministry lies in the fact of the non-existence of the BJP in Kerala. The Union Minister also met the leaders of the PFI and SDPI to ensure that they did not field candidates in these two constituencies. He reputedly assured them that the Congress would ‘go soft’ on cases filed against them by the Left Ministry. At Nemom, he specifically instructed the Congress workers to vote for the CPM. Accordingly, the CPM’s V Sivan Kutty won with a margin of 6415 votes against the BJP’s O Rajagopal. At Manjeswar, the Muslim League’s PB Abdul Razak won by a margin of 5,828 votes against the BJP’s K Surendran.

Thereafter, in the local body by-elections to 30 wards in October 2012, the SDPI emerged as a formidable force, even though it lost the poll. Its candidate A Muneer, who contested from Madayi 10th ward of Kannur district, finished third, winning 219 votes out of the total 768 votes cast. The CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) secured 262 votes; the election was won by the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) candidate Sajeendran (285 votes).

It may be recalled that the SDPI made its political debut in the local body elections of 2010 with Prof Anas Anethan (accused and imprisoned in the infamous hand chopping incident involving Prof TJ Joseph, for allegedly insulting Prophet Mohammed through a question paper prepared by him), contesting from Viyur Central Jail. He was elected to the Vazhakulam block Panchayat with a huge majority. In these elections, the SDPI won 12 seats across the State and finished second in another dozen, losing by hairline margins of 25 votes or less.

Now, with Anthony’s covert backing, the SDPI is expected to take on a higher (pro-Congress) profile during the Parliamentary elections. Last month, there was a clash between SDPI and RSS workers at the Olavanna panchayat in Kozhikode; four RSS and one SDPI worker were seriously injured and had to be admitted to Kozhikode Medical College Hospital. Later, the Nallalam police registered a case against three persons identified as Shameen Saad, 19; Saifulla C, 31, and Rahees P, 28.

The move to replace Oommen Chandy is likely to gather steam in coming weeks as the UDF’s two largest constituents, the Muslim League and the Kerala Congress (Mani), have informed the Congress high command that the problems associated with the solar power scam are a creation of the Congress party. They reportedly complained that till date, the Congress and the Government have not been able to offer a reasonable explanation for the scam, which has taken the Chief Minister, Congress ministers and leaders, and Chandy’s former aides in its embrace. The allies have warned that unless serious remedial measures are taken, the UDF could meet with the fate of 2004 in the General Election of 2014.

The first salvo in Antony’s favour was publicly fired by chief whip PC George (Kerala Congress–Mani), followed by Union Minister of State for Home Mullappally Ramachandran; both men called on the Union Defence Minister to actively intervene and solve the Congress problems in the State. Anthony is known to keep a close watch on events in his home State, though he does not intervene lightly. However, observers feel he is veering around to the idea that Chandy is becoming a political liability.